Baseball Statistics, Player Profiles, Projections, Analysis, Links, and More

Download all player projections for 2011 in Excel format by clicking here: 2011 Player Projections (March 9, 2011 version).

Projections take into account the player's park-, level-, and league-adjusted performance over the previous three seasons. They are then projected based on the player's age, team context, park, expected playing time, luck, and regression to the mean. Players can easily be sorted by league and/or position as a reference for your fantasy draft.

Baseball Dope sees the Red Sox and Yankees as the top teams in the AL, capturing the AL East title and Wild Card. The Rangers are the favorites in the AL West, with the Angels and A's close behind. Minnesota is projected to win the AL Central, with the Tigers and White Sox making it interesting.

In the National League, the Phillies are the clear favorites for the NL East crown, with the Braves the frontrunner for the Wild Card. The Cardinals are favorites in the NL Central, even after the loss of Adam Wainwright for the season, with Milwaukee and Cincinnati close behind. The Giants project to win the NL West again, with the Dodgers and Rockies several games back but in contention for the Wild Card.

Projections now reflect up-to-date depth charts and projected playing time.

The player and team pages have been updated. The projections can be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet here: 2011 Player Projections.

Batter and pitcher projections for 2011 now list each player on their expected team, and team pages have been added for 2011. Projected stats have been adjusted for hit luck. Team effects, playing time adjustments, and other refinements will be added soon. Minor leaguers who are likely to play in the majors this year will also be included.

The updated projections appear on the player and team pages, and can also be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet here: 2011 Player Projections.

Preliminary batter and pitcher projections for 2011 have been posted. Players have not yet been assigned to teams, so the projections are all calculated for neutral parks. Team effects, park effects, playing time adjustments, hit luck adjustments, and other refinements will be added as opening day approaches. Minor leaguers who are likely to play in the majors this year will also be included.

Projections appear on the player pages, and can also be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet here: 2011 Player Projections.

Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar, both of whom fell only a few votes short of election in last year's election, were named on over 75% of the ballots this year and are now members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Alomar hit .300, stole 474 bases, and won 10 Gold Gloves over his 17-year career. He helped the Toronto Blue Jays win the World Series in 1992 and 1993.

Blyleven won 287 games in a 22-year career, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts with 3701, and ranks ninth all time with 60 shutouts. He was also a key member of two World Series champions, leading both the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates and 1987 Minnesota Twins in starts and innings pitched.

Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is defined as the player's batting average when they are not striking out or hitting a home run. It is a measure of luck, as it shows how often the fielders were able to turn his batted balls into outs. A lower than expected BABIP could indicate that the hitter was just unfortunate to hit it at the fielders too often. Conversely, a higher than expected BABIP could mean he had a lot of seeing eye singles and his bloopers found the outfield grass.

So which batters were the luckiest and unluckiest in terms of BABIP during the 2010 season?

There were 270 batters who received 300 or more PA this year. These guys had far more hits than they should have based on their career BABIP. Justin Morneau led the way, hitting .389 on balls in play, 89 points higher than his career .300 mark. Most players with a significant number of at bats have a career BABIP between .290 and .320, so his career mark is fairly typical. Morneau hit .345/.437/.618, good for a 1.055 OPS. If his balls in play had fallen in at his career .300 rate, his line would have been something like .280/.382/.534, for an OPS 139 points lower at .916.

Also of note in the top ten luckiest list:
Josh Hamilton, who rode a .394 BABIP to the AL MVP award.
Omar Infante, whose .357 BABIP led to his first All-Star appearance.
Jay Bruce, who can partially thank a .339 BABIP for the 6-year, $51 million contract extension he signed after the season.
Adrian Beltre, whose .336 BABIP could also mean big bucks as he is currently fielding free agent offers.

And now for the unlucky guys. These guys could have been expected to hit much better if they had been able to match their career BABIP. The clear leader is Aaron Hill, who managed an unfathomable .197 BABIP versus a reasonably normal .290 career mark. He could have been expected to hit about .279/.339/.488, but put up an actual line of .205/.271/.394, for a 162 point loss in OPS.

Also of note in the ten unluckiest list:
Tony Gwynn Jr., who was released by San Diego and signed by the Dodgers.
Derek Jeter, whose disappointing season led to a heated contract battle with the Yankees.
Carlos Pena, who hit .196 and settled for a 1-year, $10 million contract with the Cubs. In his case, some of the low BABIP may be explained by his inability to adjust to the extreme shift deployed by many opposing managers against him, turning possible singles into outs.
Mark Reynolds, who hit .198 and was shipped to the Orioles for two relief pitchers.

Players who were significantly unlucky in 2010 are good candidates to bounce back to form in 2011. Last year's unluckiest player, Kelly Johnson, had a terrific comeback season for the Diamondbacks after signing cheaply. So keep an eye on Hill and the others in this list.

Download the data for 2010 here: 2010 Hit Luck.

A new data resource is now available for download. It is a spreadsheet containing park factors for each team for all seasons since 1974. In addition, it breaks down the park factors into splits for left handed batters, right handed batters, left handed pitchers, and right handed pitchers.

For example, it allows you to see what effect Fenway Park and Tropicana Field had on doubles for left handed batters in 2010.
Answer: Fenway increased them by 18.4% (park factor 1.1839) while Tropicana decreased them by 10.3% (park factor 0.8973) -- look for Carl Crawford's doubles total to rise!

Download the spreadsheet here:
MLB Park Factors With Splits