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November 19, 2012

2012 Statistics Updated

Team and player pages have been updated with 2012 statistics.


March 9, 2011

2011 Projected Standings



2011 Projected Standings

American League East
Team
W
L
Win%
GB
Boston Red Sox
91
71
.562
--
New York Yankees
88
74
.543
3.0
Tampa Bay Rays
81
81
.500
10.0
Baltimore Orioles
76
86
.469
15.0
Toronto Blue Jays
72
90
.444
19.0
National League East
Team
W
L
Win%
GB
Philadelphia Phillies
95
67
.586
--
Atlanta Braves
87
75
.537
8.0
Florida Marlins
82
80
.506
13.0
New York Mets
79
83
.488
16.0
Washington Nationals
70
92
.432
25.0
American League Central
Team
W
L
Win%
GB
Minnesota Twins
86
76
.531
--
Detroit Tigers
84
78
.519
2.0
Chicago White Sox
83
79
.512
3.0
Cleveland Indians
76
86
.469
10.0
Kansas City Royals
70
92
.432
16.0
National League Central
Team
W
L
Win%
GB
St. Louis Cardinals
87
75
.537
--
Milwaukee Brewers
83
79
.512
4.0
Cincinnati Reds
82
80
.506
5.0
Chicago Cubs
79
83
.488
8.0
Pittsburgh Pirates
69
93
.426
18.0
Houston Astros
69
93
.426
18.0
American League West
Team
W
L
Win%
GB
Texas Rangers
87
75
.537
--
Los Angeles Angels
84
78
.519
3.0
Oakland A's
82
80
.506
5.0
Seattle Mariners
75
87
.463
12.0
National League West
Team
W
L
Win%
GB
San Francisco Giants
93
69
.574
--
Los Angeles Dodgers
86
76
.531
7.0
Colorado Rockies
85
77
.525
8.0
San Diego Padres
77
85
.475
16.0
Arizona Diamondbacks
74
88
.457
19.0


February 28, 2011

Projections Updated (Again)



February 5, 2011

Projections Updated

Batter and pitcher projections for 2011 now list each player on their expected team, and team pages have been added for 2011. Projected stats have been adjusted for hit luck. Team effects, playing time adjustments, and other refinements will be added soon. Minor leaguers who are likely to play in the majors this year will also be included.

The updated projections appear on the player and team pages, and can also be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet here: 2011 Player Projections.


January 22, 2011

Preliminary 2011 Projections Available

Preliminary batter and pitcher projections for 2011 have been posted. Players have not yet been assigned to teams, so the projections are all calculated for neutral parks. Team effects, park effects, playing time adjustments, hit luck adjustments, and other refinements will be added as opening day approaches. Minor leaguers who are likely to play in the majors this year will also be included.

Projections appear on the player pages, and can also be downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet here: 2011 Player Projections.


January 6, 2011

Bert Blyleven, Roberto Alomar Elected to Hall of Fame

Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar, both of whom fell only a few votes short of election in last year's election, were named on over 75% of the ballots this year and are now members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Alomar hit .300, stole 474 bases, and won 10 Gold Gloves over his 17-year career. He helped the Toronto Blue Jays win the World Series in 1992 and 1993.

Blyleven won 287 games in a 22-year career, ranks fifth all time in strikeouts with 3701, and ranks ninth all time with 60 shutouts. He was also a key member of two World Series champions, leading both the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates and 1987 Minnesota Twins in starts and innings pitched.



December 14, 2010

Hit Luck - 2010

Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is defined as the player's batting average when they are not striking out or hitting a home run. It is a measure of luck, as it shows how often the fielders were able to turn his batted balls into outs. A lower than expected BABIP could indicate that the hitter was just unfortunate to hit it at the fielders too often. Conversely, a higher than expected BABIP could mean he had a lot of seeing eye singles and his bloopers found the outfield grass.

So which batters were the luckiest and unluckiest in terms of BABIP during the 2010 season?

There were 270 batters who received 300 or more PA this year. These guys had far more hits than they should have based on their career BABIP. Justin Morneau led the way, hitting .389 on balls in play, 89 points higher than his career .300 mark. Most players with a significant number of at bats have a career BABIP between .290 and .320, so his career mark is fairly typical. Morneau hit .345/.437/.618, good for a 1.055 OPS. If his balls in play had fallen in at his career .300 rate, his line would have been something like .280/.382/.534, for an OPS 139 points lower at .916.

Also of note in the top ten luckiest list:
Josh Hamilton, who rode a .394 BABIP to the AL MVP award.
Omar Infante, whose .357 BABIP led to his first All-Star appearance.
Jay Bruce, who can partially thank a .339 BABIP for the 6-year, $51 million contract extension he signed after the season.
Adrian Beltre, whose .336 BABIP could also mean big bucks as he is currently fielding free agent offers.

20102010CareerActualActualExpectedExpected2010
RankNameABBABIPBABIPBA/OBA/SLGOPSBA/OBA/SLGOPSDifference
1.Justin Morneau296.389.300.345/.437/.6181.055.280/.382/.534.916.139
2.Carlos Ruiz371.337.282.302/.400/.447.847.256/.361/.388.748.099
3.Ramon Hernandez313.335.282.297/.364/.428.792.254/.325/.374.699.093
4.Omar Infante471.357.316.321/.359/.416.775.286/.327/.373.699.075
5.Josh Hamilton518.394.349.359/.411/.6331.044.325/.380/.589.969.075
6.John Buck409.342.293.281/.314/.489.802.248/.283/.446.728.074
7.Nick Swisher565.337.289.288/.360/.512.871.255/.330/.468.797.074
8.Adrian Beltre589.336.297.321/.365/.553.919.289/.336/.512.848.071
9.Nelson Cruz399.355.312.318/.374/.576.950.286/.345/.535.880.071
10.Jay Bruce509.339.293.281/.353/.493.846.249/.324/.453.777.069

And now for the unlucky guys. These guys could have been expected to hit much better if they had been able to match their career BABIP. The clear leader is Aaron Hill, who managed an unfathomable .197 BABIP versus a reasonably normal .290 career mark. He could have been expected to hit about .279/.339/.488, but put up an actual line of .205/.271/.394, for a 162 point loss in OPS.

Also of note in the ten unluckiest list:
Tony Gwynn Jr., who was released by San Diego and signed by the Dodgers.
Derek Jeter, whose disappointing season led to a heated contract battle with the Yankees.
Carlos Pena, who hit .196 and settled for a 1-year, $10 million contract with the Cubs. In his case, some of the low BABIP may be explained by his inability to adjust to the extreme shift deployed by many opposing managers against him, turning possible singles into outs.
Mark Reynolds, who hit .198 and was shipped to the Orioles for two relief pitchers.

Players who were significantly unlucky in 2010 are good candidates to bounce back to form in 2011. Last year's unluckiest player, Kelly Johnson, had a terrific comeback season for the Diamondbacks after signing cheaply. So keep an eye on Hill and the others in this list.

20102010CareerActualActualExpectedExpected2010
RankNameABBABIPBABIPBA/OBA/SLGOPSBA/OBA/SLGOPSDifference
261.Mark Reynolds499.262.328.198/.320/.433.753.232/.349/.478.827-.073
262.Bobby Abreu573.299.348.255/.352/.435.787.290/.383/.481.864-.076
263.Carlos Pena484.225.284.196/.325/.407.732.233/.355/.455.810-.077
264.Derek Jeter663.309.358.270/.340/.370.710.311/.377/.419.796-.085
265.Jimmy Rollins350.248.292.243/.320/.374.694.282/.354/.427.781-.086
266.Aaron Rowand331.264.319.230/.281/.378.659.271/.319/.430.749-.090
267.Tony Gwynn Jr.289.237.290.204/.304/.287.591.247/.342/.340.682-.090
268.Carlos Lee605.239.290.246/.291/.417.708.290/.332/.472.803-.095
269.Mark Kotsay327.247.299.239/.306/.376.683.284/.347/.434.781-.097
270.Aaron Hill528.197.290.205/.271/.394.665.279/.339/.488.827-.161


Download the data for 2010 here: 2010 Hit Luck.


December 9, 2010

Park Factors With Splits

A new data resource is now available for download. It is a spreadsheet containing park factors for each team for all seasons since 1974. In addition, it breaks down the park factors into splits for left handed batters, right handed batters, left handed pitchers, and right handed pitchers.

For example, it allows you to see what effect Fenway Park and Tropicana Field had on doubles for left handed batters in 2010.
Answer: Fenway increased them by 18.4% (park factor 1.1839) while Tropicana decreased them by 10.3% (park factor 0.8973) -- look for Carl Crawford's doubles total to rise!

Download the spreadsheet here:
MLB Park Factors With Splits


December 2010

Congratulations to the World Champion San Francisco Giants and the 2010 award winners:

NL MVP: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

NL Rookie of the Year: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers


Check out more player pages here.







Quick Links:

Award Winners:
Barry Larkin
Ron Santo
Miguel Cabrera
Buster Posey
David Price
R.A. Dickey
Mike Trout
Bryce Harper

Playoff Teams:
San Francisco Giants
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
Atlanta Braves
Detroit Tigers
New York Yankees
Oakland A's
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles

In The News:
Melky Cabrera

 
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